Research library

Briefs, evidence notes, and methodology

The Centre publishes policy briefs, evidence notes, and methodological guidance to support rigorous, evidence-led analysis of Kenya's economic challenges. All materials are freely available.

Policy briefs Evidence notes Methodology

Policy briefs

Concise, actionable analyses of specific policy challenges — each brief sets out the problem, evidence, and a proposed course of action.

PB-001August 2026

Labour & Employment

Reforming Kenya's apprenticeship system to reduce youth unemployment

Kenya's formal apprenticeship system reaches fewer than 30,000 young people annually against a cohort of over 800,000 new labour market entrants. This brief examines the structural barriers — fragmented regulation, low employer participation, and weak TVET-industry linkages — and proposes a consolidated national apprenticeship framework modelled on Germany's dual system, adapted for Kenya's informal sector scale.

PB-002July 2026

Housing & Urban Development

Land tenure reform as a precondition for affordable housing delivery

Kenya's affordable housing deficit — estimated at 2 million units — cannot be addressed through supply-side subsidies alone while land tenure insecurity persists. This brief analyses how unclear title, informal settlement regularisation backlogs, and speculative land banking by public bodies suppress private investment in affordable housing, and proposes a sequenced tenure reform agenda.

PB-003June 2026

Public Finance

Restructuring Kenya's public debt to restore fiscal space

Kenya's public debt reached 73% of GDP in 2025, with debt service consuming over 60% of revenue. This brief examines the composition of the debt stock, the terms of commercial Eurobond borrowing, and the constraints on domestic revenue mobilisation, and proposes a medium-term fiscal consolidation framework that protects capital expenditure while reducing the debt-service burden.

Evidence notes

Shorter technical notes reviewing the evidence base on specific questions — intended to inform policy analysis rather than advocate a position.

EN-001August 2026

What does the evidence say about cash transfer programmes and labour market participation in sub-Saharan Africa?

A review of 24 evaluations of cash transfer programmes across sub-Saharan Africa, examining effects on labour supply, enterprise formation, and consumption. Finds consistent positive effects on consumption and child outcomes; mixed evidence on adult labour supply; and emerging evidence of positive enterprise effects where transfers are combined with complementary inputs.

EN-002July 2026

Infrastructure quality and agricultural productivity: evidence from Kenya's road network

Examines the relationship between road quality, market access, and smallholder agricultural productivity using KNBS panel data and road condition surveys. Finds that a 10% improvement in road quality index is associated with a 4.2% increase in farm-gate prices and a 6.8% increase in marketed surplus among smallholders within 20km of the improved road.

EN-003May 2026

Special economic zones and industrial policy: lessons for Kenya from East Asian experience

Reviews the conditions under which special economic zones have generated sustained industrial development in South Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam, and assesses Kenya's SEZ framework against these conditions. Identifies governance, infrastructure provision, and linkage policy as the three most critical success factors absent from Kenya's current SEZ design.

Methodology

The Centre's analytical framework is designed to produce policy-relevant, evidence-grounded analysis that is accessible to non-specialist audiences without sacrificing rigour.

Problem-first framing

Analysis begins with a precisely defined policy problem — not a solution or a sector. We ask: what is the binding constraint on a specific outcome, and what is the evidence for that diagnosis?

Causal chain analysis

We map the causal chain from proximate causes to root causes before proposing interventions. Treating symptoms without addressing root causes is a common source of policy failure.

Evidence grading

We distinguish between experimental evidence, quasi-experimental evidence, observational evidence, and expert judgement. Proposed actions are calibrated to the strength of the evidence base.

Political economy

Technically sound policies fail when they ignore implementation constraints. We assess the political economy of each proposed action — who gains, who loses, and what the realistic pathway to adoption is.

Cross-disciplinary review

Policy briefs are reviewed by contributors from at least two disciplines before publication. Built environment, engineering, and legal perspectives are systematically sought where relevant.

Open access

All Centre publications are freely available without registration. We believe that public policy analysis should be a public good.

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The Centre welcomes policy briefs, evidence notes, and methodological contributions from professionals across economics, law, engineering, and related disciplines.

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